Powerful Job Market Fuels Homebuyer Demand

Smiling senior man with grey hair standing in front of his modern design home holding tablet, Germany

The spring housing market has been surprisingly active this year. Even with affordability challenges and a limited number of homes for sale, buyer demand is strong, and getting stronger.

One way we know there are interested buyers right now is because showing traffic is up. Data from the latest ShowingTime Showing Index, which is a measure of buyers actively touring homes, makes it clear more people are out looking at homes than there were prior to the pandemic (see graph below):

And though there’s less traffic than the buyer frenzy of the past couple of years, we’re not far off that pace. There are a lot of interested buyers checking out available homes right now.

But why are buyers so active at a time when mortgage rates are higher than they were just last year?

The Job Market Is Growing at a Stronger-Than-Expected Pace

With inflation still high, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) repeatedly hiking the Federal Funds Rate, and a lot of chatter in the media about a recession, it might surprise you just how strong today’s job market is. What might be even more surprising is the fact that it appears to be getting stronger (see graph below):

Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports how many new jobs were added to the U.S. job market. The graph above shows 88,000 more jobs were created in April than in March. In fact, the April numbers beat expert projections. That’s a solid indicator the job market is growing.

Unemployment Is at a Near All-Time Low

Ever since the Fed began fighting inflation, many people expected the low unemployment rate we’ve seen over the past couple of years to rise – but that hasn’t happened.

In fact, what has happened is the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.4% – a 50-year low (see graph below):

With so many people steadily employed and financially stable right now, they’re still able to seriously consider buying a home.

What This Means for You

If you’re thinking about selling your house this year, a market with active buyers is music to your ears. That’s because there’ll be increased interest in your home when you put it on the market, especially at a time when the number of homes for sale is so low.

To get started, your best resource is an experienced real estate agent. They can help you price your house appropriately, navigate the offers you’ll receive, negotiate effectively, and minimize your stress and hassle.

Bottom Line

There are plenty of buyers out there right now trying to find a home that fits their needs. That’s because the job market is strong, and many people have the stable income needed to seriously consider homeownership. To put your house on the market and get in on the action, reach out to a trusted real estate agent.

The Worst Home Price Declines May Be Behind Us

The Worst Home Price Declines Are Behind Us [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some Highlights

  • While home prices vary by local area, they’ve already hit their low point nationally, and now they’re starting to rise again.
  • Last July, prices started to decline, but around February, they began climbing back up.
  • If you put your plans to move on hold waiting to see what would happen with home prices, let’s connect to discuss if now’s the right time to jump back in.

Why Today’s Housing Market Is Not About To Crash

Why Today’s Housing Market Is Not About To Crash

There’s been some concern lately that the housing market is headed for a crash. And given some of the affordability challenges in the housing market, along with a lot of recession talk in the media, it’s easy enough to understand why that worry has come up.

But the data clearly shows today’s market is very different than it was before the housing crash in 2008. Rest assured, this isn’t a repeat of what happened back then. Here’s why.

It’s Harder To Get a Loan Now

It was much easier to get a home loan during the lead-up to the 2008 housing crisis than it is today. Back then, banks had different lending standards, making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance an existing one. As a result, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.

Things are different today as purchasers face increasingly higher standards from mortgage companies. The graph below uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to show this difference. The lower the number, the harder it is to get a mortgage. The higher the number, the easier it is.

Unemployment Recovered Faster This Time

While the pandemic caused unemployment to spike over the last couple of years, the jobless rate has already recovered back to pre-pandemic levels (see the blue line in the graph below). Things were different during the Great Recession as a large number of people stayed unemployed for a much longer period of time (see the red in the graph below):

Here’s how the quick job recovery this time helps the housing market. Because so many people are employed today, there’s less risk of homeowners facing hardship and defaulting on their loans. This helps put today’s housing market on stronger footing and reduces the risk of more foreclosures coming onto the market.

There Are Far Fewer Homes for Sale Today

There were also too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to years of underbuilding homes.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Federal Reserve to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 2.6-months’ supply. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did in 2008.

Equity Levels Are Near Record Highs

That low inventory of homes for sale helped keep upward pressure on home prices over the course of the pandemic. As a result, homeowners today have near-record amounts of equity (see graph below):

And, that equity puts them in a much stronger position compared to the Great Recession. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

Most homeowners are well positioned to weather a shallow recession. More than a decade of home price increases has given homeowners record amounts of equity, which protects them from foreclosure should they fall behind on their mortgage payments.”

Bottom Line

The graphs above should ease any fears you may have that today’s housing market is headed for a crash. The most current data clearly shows that today’s market is nothing like it was last time.

Jim Armstrong
Broker/owner
Armstrong Field Real Estate
978-394-6736

Reasons To Sell Your House Today

 

Reasons To Sell Your House Today

HomeSellers

Some Highlights

  • Not sure if selling your house is the right move today? You should know there are a number of reasons it still makes sense to sell now.
  • Your house will stand out because inventory is low. That’s why the number of offers on recently sold homes is on the rise. And most homeowners have a lot of equity that can fuel a move.
  • If you’re thinking about selling your house, reach out to a local real estate expert to discuss if now may be the time to move.

Ways To Overcome Affordability Challenges in Today’s Housing Market

Some Highlights

  • With so few homes on the market right now, widening the scope of your search to include nearby areas could help you find more options in your budget.
  • You can also work with a trusted lender to consider alternative financing options and search for down payment assistance.
  • If you’ve been searching for a home but are concerned about rising costs, make sure you have a team of trusted real estate professionals for expert advice.